STRAT | Society & Supply Shocks

<p>On this episode of <strong><em>STRAT</em></strong>, <strong>Mark Mansfield </strong>and<strong> Hal Kempfer</strong> tackle the issue of a fragmenting world order, where relative influence and leadership is shifting rapidly and framed by a US and China bilateral relationship tilting towards conflict. They look at various potential scenarios:</p><p>•&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;There is no scenario where the US and China become&nbsp;<u>fully</u>&nbsp;cooperative.</p><p>•&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Most nations’ cost-benefit analysis’ support a world order where US leadership remains preferable to China or other non-aligned players.</p><p>•&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The extremes of either a UNIPOLAR or BIPOLAR world – i.e., an old Cold War style scenario, will morph into a MULTIPOLAR gameboard.</p><p>•&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;As middle powers continually maneuver to remain relevant, a multipolar landscape creates the ‘off ramps,’ realignment options and triggers needed to dilute / balance the relative strength of both the US and China - (‘Balancers’: India, Japan, Germany, France, UK, and Canada).</p><p>•&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;‘Spoiler’ status will remain with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.</p><p>In an uncertain world, with an increasingly dynamic planning environment, this is 20 minutes you don’t want to miss.</p>