Trump Just Copied The Japanese Economic Playbook (Why It Matters)

"Because while history doesn't exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme."

In 2025, the Trump administration began investing tax dollars directly into private companies: Intel, MP Materials, and Lithium Americas, and is now pursuing a sovereign wealth fund slated for 2026. It's unprecedented in U.S. peacetime history, but not globally. Two countries tried versions of this before, with dramatically different outcomes: Singapore built one of the wealthiest economies on Earth, while Japan lost 35 years of stock market growth.

Jaspreet Singh runs the numbers on both. GDP per capita, wages, and stock market performance, to give investors a data-based framework for thinking about where the U.S. might be headed and what to do about it.

In this episode, Jaspreet explains:

How Singapore's government invested in specific companies it believed could build the economy, resulting in GDP per capita growing 12x, wages growing 14x (3x inflation-adjusted), and the stock market tripling over roughly four decades

How Japan's government took the opposite approach, pumping money into broad indexes to prop up stock prices rather than build underlying value; leading to GDP per capita falling 16%, wages falling 11% over 30 years, and the stock market going 35 years without breaking a new record high

Why the U.S. strategy looks like a mix of both: targeted investments in strategic industries like semiconductors and materials resemble Singapore, while potential bailouts of struggling companies and broad index support resemble Japan and which path wins will determine whether this enriches investors or costs them decades

Four investment angles depending on what you believe happens next: dividend ETFs like SCHD if you expect a Japan-style slowdown, defense ETFs like ITA if the government builds strategic industries, international funds like VEA or VWO for diversification outside the U.S., or SPY for those who believe the American economy stays dominant regardless

Keywords: sovereign wealth fund, Trump investing, Japan economy, Singapore economy, Japanification, dividend investing, SCHD, defense ETF, S&P 500, government stock market

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