Rajiv Sethi – Taking Bets on the Presidency

<p>Order Glenn's memoir, LATE ADMISSIONS: CONFESSIONS OF A BLACK CONSERVATIVE. Available here or wherever you get your books: <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393881349" target="_blank">https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393881349</a></p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=0s" target="_blank">0:00</a> Rajiv’s report from the FIRE conference</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=191s" target="_blank">3:11</a> Roland Fryer’s keynote address</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=806s" target="_blank">13:26</a> Ta-Nehisi Coates’s humanist universalism</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=1045s" target="_blank">17:25</a> “Tolstoy is the Tolstoy of the Zulus”</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=1130s" target="_blank">18:50</a> Rajiv’s reading of Coates’s stand on “apartheid”</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=1915s" target="_blank">31:55</a> The gap between election forecasting models and prediction markets</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=2212s" target="_blank">36:52</a> The limits of models and markets</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=2399s" target="_blank">39:59</a> Rajiv: The markets show us a balance between narratives about the election</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=2657s" target="_blank">44:17</a> Is one crypto trader manipulating the prediction markets in favor of Trump?</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=3192s" target="_blank">53:12</a> Rajiv: Prediction markets may have sent early signals about January 6</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=3319s" target="_blank">55:19</a> Rajiv’s family history with Kamala Harris</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=3465s" target="_blank">57:45</a> The new prominence of Indian Americans in politics</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drUTafxRn64&#38;t=3787s" target="_blank">1:03:07</a> The axiom of antiessentialism</p><p>Recorded October 27, 2024</p><p>Links and Readings</p><p><a href="https://rajivsethi.substack.com/" target="_blank">Rajiv’s Substack, </a><a href="https://rajivsethi.substack.com/" target="_blank"><em>Imperfect Information</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.thefire.org/" target="_blank">Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank">Lara Bazelon’s 2022 </a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank"><em>Atlantic</em></a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank"> essay, “The ACLU Has Lost Its Way”</a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/lara-bazelon-parents-children-and" target="_blank">Glenn’s 2021 conversation with Bazelon</a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/erec-smith-free-black-thought" target="_blank">Glenn’s 2023 conversation with Erec Smith</a></p><p><a href="https://reason.com/volokh/2022/12/26/hamline-university-apparently-fires-art-history-lecturer-for-showing-depictions-of-muhammed/" target="_blank">Eugene Volokh on the Hamline University-Prophet Muhammad painting controversy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Message-Ta-Nehisi-Coates/dp/0593230388" target="_blank">Ta-Nehisi Coates’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Message-Ta-Nehisi-Coates/dp/0593230388" target="_blank"><em>The Message</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank">Coates’s 2010 </a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank"><em>Atlantic </em></a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank">essay, “The Ghost of Bobby Lee”</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Witness-world-Ralph-Wiley/dp/0345409744" target="_blank">Ralph Wiley’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Witness-world-Ralph-Wiley/dp/0345409744" target="_blank"><em>Dark Witness: When Black People Should Be Sacrificed (Again)</em></a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/john-mcwhorter-glenn-and-john-throw" target="_blank">Last week’s TGS debate about </a><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/john-mcwhorter-glenn-and-john-throw" target="_blank"><em>The Messsage</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Slavery-Social-Death-Comparative-Preface/dp/0674986903" target="_blank">Orlando Patterson’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Slavery-Social-Death-Comparative-Preface/dp/0674986903" target="_blank"><em>Slavery and Social Death: A Comparative Study</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Racial-Inequality-Preface-Lectures/dp/0674260465" target="_blank">Glenn’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Racial-Inequality-Preface-Lectures/dp/0674260465" target="_blank"><em>The Anatomy of Racial Inequality</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Late-Admissions-Confessions-Black-Conservative/dp/0393881342" target="_blank">Glenn’s memoir, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Late-Admissions-Confessions-Black-Conservative/dp/0393881342" target="_blank"><em>Late Admissions: Confessions of a Black Conservative</em></a></p><p><a href="https://polymarket.com/" target="_blank">Polymarket</a></p><p>Recorded October 27, 2024</p><p>Links and Readings</p><p><a href="https://rajivsethi.substack.com/" target="_blank">Rajiv’s Substack, </a><a href="https://rajivsethi.substack.com/" target="_blank"><em>Imperfect Information</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.thefire.org/" target="_blank">Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank">Lara Bazelon’s 2022 </a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank"><em>Atlantic</em></a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/aclu-johnny-depp-amber-heard-trial/629808/" target="_blank"> essay, “The ACLU Has Lost Its Way”</a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/lara-bazelon-parents-children-and" target="_blank">Glenn’s 2021 conversation with Bazelon</a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/erec-smith-free-black-thought" target="_blank">Glenn’s 2023 conversation with Erec Smith</a></p><p><a href="https://reason.com/volokh/2022/12/26/hamline-university-apparently-fires-art-history-lecturer-for-showing-depictions-of-muhammed/" target="_blank">Eugene Volokh on the Hamline University-Prophet Muhammad painting controversy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Message-Ta-Nehisi-Coates/dp/0593230388" target="_blank">Ta-Nehisi Coates’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Message-Ta-Nehisi-Coates/dp/0593230388" target="_blank"><em>The Message</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank">Coates’s 2010 </a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank"><em>Atlantic </em></a><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/04/the-ghost-of-bobby-lee/38813/" target="_blank">essay, “The Ghost of Bobby Lee”</a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Witness-world-Ralph-Wiley/dp/0345409744" target="_blank">Ralph Wiley’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Witness-world-Ralph-Wiley/dp/0345409744" target="_blank"><em>Dark Witness: When Black People Should Be Sacrificed (Again)</em></a></p><p><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/john-mcwhorter-glenn-and-john-throw" target="_blank">Last week’s TGS debate about </a><a href="https://glennloury.substack.com/p/john-mcwhorter-glenn-and-john-throw" target="_blank"><em>The Messsage</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Slavery-Social-Death-Comparative-Preface/dp/0674986903" target="_blank">Orlando Patterson’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Slavery-Social-Death-Comparative-Preface/dp/0674986903" target="_blank"><em>Slavery and Social Death: A Comparative Study</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Racial-Inequality-Preface-Lectures/dp/0674260465" target="_blank">Glenn’s book, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Racial-Inequality-Preface-Lectures/dp/0674260465" target="_blank"><em>The Anatomy of Racial Inequality</em></a></p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Late-Admissions-Confessions-Black-Conservative/dp/0393881342" target="_blank">Glenn’s memoir, </a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Late-Admissions-Confessions-Black-Conservative/dp/0393881342" target="_blank"><em>Late Admissions: Confessions of a Black Conservative</em></a></p><p><a href="https://polymarket.com/" target="_blank">Polymarket</a></p> <br /><br />This is a public episode. 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