Iran Ceasefire Explained: Winners, Losers, and What Comes Next

Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer break down the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced Tuesday evening.

They walk through how the deal came together from President Trump’s escalating rhetoric to Pakistan’s role as an unlikely intermediary and assess what the ceasefire actually is, and what it isn’t.

They also break down the deeper questions about what the U.S. achieved, what Iran gained, and how this reshapes the strategic balance going forward.

Topics discussed:

What the ceasefire includes and address the major gaps that remain

Why Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz may be the most important outcome of the war

What could come out of the upcoming negotiations, including the future of Iran’s nuclear stockpile

The impact of the war on U.S. deterrence, military readiness, and global credibility

The broader implications for Russia, China, NATO, and the U.S.-Israel relationship

At the end of the episode, Jake and Jon open up the Long Game mailbag for the first time, answering listener questions on targeted assassinations, Russia’s status as a great power, what’s next for Cuba, and why they started the podcast after leaving the government.

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Watch the video of this episode on YouTube.

Show notes are available here.

Transcript available here.

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The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

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