SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver

<p>We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options,&nbsp;on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p><strong>In this episode, we discuss:</strong></p><ul><li>Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system</li><li>Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities</li><li>The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets</li><li>The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems</li><li>'Caveman-style' Trend Following</li><li>How to hedge against inflation</li><li>Trend Following's success in rising interest-rate environments</li><li>Tesla's recent earnings</li></ul><br /><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Rob on <a href="https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong> </p><p><strong>00:00 -</strong>&nbsp;Intro</p><p><strong>01:36 -</strong>&nbsp;Macro recap from Niels</p><p><strong>04:27 -</strong>&nbsp;Weekly review of returns</p><p><strong>09:38 -&nbsp;</strong>Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings</p><p><strong>25:13 -</strong>&nbsp;Q1; Matt via the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service</a>: How do you select single stocks as a Trend Follower?</p><p><strong>35:02 -</strong>&nbsp;Q2; Alfred: Does backwardation lead to price rallies?</p><p><strong>41:10 -&nbsp;</strong>The fund who are now nicknamed ‘Gamma Hammer’ for betting on tranquil markets</p><p><strong>48:07 -</strong>&nbsp;Q3; Riccardo: What does Rob think about mean reversion strategies, and how they can be complimented with Trend Following? What are your thoughts on Systematic Macro strategies, and how do they compare with Trend Following?</p><p><strong>57:16 -</strong>&nbsp;Q4; Michael: How long would it take to convert a system made in Microsoft Excel, to Python?</p><p><strong>01:00:20 -</strong>&nbsp;Q5; James: What do you think about exiting winning trades in stages, rather than at once?</p><p><strong>01:06:08 -&nbsp;</strong>Hedging against inflation</p><p><strong>01:11:06 -</strong>&nbsp;Benchmark performance update</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>