VOL02: Past, Present, & Future Volatility ft. Noel Smith

<p>Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX &amp; bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p><strong>In this episode, we discuss:</strong></p><ul><li> Ensemble investing and its benefits</li><li> Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time</li><li> The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard</li><li> ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies</li><li> How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today</li><li> Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals</li><li> Noel’s VIX and bonds pairs trade</li><li> Assessing the current real value of an asset</li><li> How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary’ environment</li></ul><br /><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Jason on <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonmutiny" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</p><p>Follow Noel on&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/jasonmutiny" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/noel-smith-chicago/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>, and via his <a href="https://www.convexam.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">website</a>.</p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong></p><p><strong>00:00</strong> - Intro</p><p><strong>02:06</strong> - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?</p><p><strong>03:20</strong> - Do you think that volatility is quite predictable around benign market periods?</p><p><strong>04:12</strong> - How do you apply your prop trading background to volatility strategies in general?</p><p><strong>05:13</strong> - Did the days of pit trading leaving a big impression on you?</p><p><strong>06:28</strong> - Why use ensembles?</p><p><strong>07:33</strong> - How do you allocate between strategies during different macro environments?</p><p><strong>09:37</strong> - How do you balance judgement calls versus algorithmic calls?</p><p><strong>11:38</strong> - How do you think about the timing of adding and removing volatility protection?</p><p><strong>15:01</strong> - Where did you come with the idea to pairs trade VIX and bonds?</p><p><strong>19:28</strong> - Is there a volatility risk premium?</p><p><strong>21:14</strong> - Tell us a little more about your ‘vol-arb’ strategy?</p><p><strong>26:28</strong> - How are you determining if something is cheap or overpriced?</p><p><strong>27:53</strong> - Do you put more weight on liquidity flow data as opposed to other fundamental data?</p><p><strong>30:32</strong> - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?</p><p><strong>34:30</strong> - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?</p><p><strong>39:33</strong> - How do you think about past, present and future volatility?</p><p><strong>41:46</strong> - How do you approach correlations across different timeframes?</p><p><strong>43:24</strong> - Dispersion trades seem to go in and out of fashion, do you feel that your strategies run dispersion trades when they’re popular only?</p><p><strong>46:38</strong> - Do you dial into and out of strategies rather than switching allocations?</p><p><strong>48:11</strong> - Tell us more about the ‘bond vol-arb’ strategy</p><p><strong>51:01</strong> - Tell us more about the ‘macro-bats’ strategy</p><p><strong>57:42</strong> - What do you think will happen if markets enter a stagflationary environment?</p><p><strong>01:03:39</strong> - How would you combine your ensemble investments into a wider portfolio?</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>