SI176: The Origin of Outliers ft. Richard Brennan

<p>Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p><strong>In this episode, we discuss:</strong></p><ul><li>Spotting patterns among previous outliers</li><li>Simplicity over complexity</li><li>How little the news really moves markets</li><li>Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'</li><li>The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns</li></ul><br /><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Rich on <a href="https://twitter.com/RichB118" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong></p><p><strong>00:00</strong>&nbsp;– Intro</p><p><strong>01:19</strong>&nbsp;– A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: <p><a href="https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen</a></p> </p><p><strong>02:41</strong>&nbsp;– Macro recap from Niels</p><p><strong>04:13</strong>&nbsp;– Weekly review of performance</p><p><strong>11:14 </strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?</p><p><strong>17:22 </strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?</p><p><strong>21:24 </strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?</p><p><strong>24:14 </strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?</p><p><strong>29:07 </strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management?&nbsp;</p><p><strong>32:39 –</strong>&nbsp;The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’</p><p><strong>38:24&nbsp;–</strong>&nbsp;Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers</p><p><strong>01:01:53 –</strong>&nbsp;Efficient market hypothesis versus adaptive market hypothesis</p><p><strong>01:22:03 –</strong>&nbsp;What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?</p><p><strong>01:25:32</strong>&nbsp;<strong>–</strong> Benchmark performance update</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>