SI186: Crisis Alpha & My Trend Following Thesis ft. Richard Brennan

<p>Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure!</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p><strong>In this episode, we discuss:</strong></p><ul><li>Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in Bonds</li><li>Our slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha"</li><li>The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend Following</li><li>The impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the World</li><li>The difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use them</li><li>What software to use to backtest your systems</li><li>Whether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it static</li></ul><br /><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Rich on <a href="https://twitter.com/RichB118" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong></p><p><strong>00:00</strong> – Intro</p><p><strong>03:09 –</strong> Weekly recap from Niels</p><p><strong>05:22 -</strong> Update on Rich's Battleship</p><p><strong>15:35 -</strong> Crisis Alpha...yes but much more</p><p><strong>21:40 -</strong> My Trend Following Thesis</p><p><strong>37:24 - </strong>Q1, Andrew: Could you all define the use of a trailing vs initial stop in systems you use?</p><p><strong>52:25 - </strong>Q2, Nicolas: Do you know any affordable back testing systems, other than Excel?</p><p><strong>56:45 –</strong> Q3, Brian: If you Vol adjust your positions...when, if ever, do you re-establish your full position if volatility collapses?</p><p><strong>01:21:26 –</strong> Industry Performance Update</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>