SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

<p>Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility &amp; Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Cem on <a href="https://twitter.com/jam_croissant" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>00:00 -</strong> Intro</p><p><strong>01:52 -</strong> What happened this week?</p><p><strong>07:22 - </strong>Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve?&nbsp;</p><p><strong>11:24 -</strong> Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?</p><p><strong>14:21 - </strong>Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?</p><p><strong>16:25 -</strong> Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity</p><p><strong>18:12 - </strong>Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?</p><p><strong>18:39 -</strong> Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?</p><p><strong>22:47 -</strong> The U.S election and positive CPI numbers</p><p><strong>30:11 - </strong>Asset classes in secular inflation</p><p><strong>38:15 -</strong> Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?</p><p><strong>46:51 -</strong> The impact of low skew</p><p><strong>57:30 -</strong> When are we coming back to normal?</p><p><strong>01:02:05 -</strong> Liquidity and volatility in relation to bonds</p><p><strong>01:08:35 - </strong>Thanks for listening</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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