SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

<p>Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Rob on <a href="https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong> </p><p><strong>02:40 - </strong>What happened since last time? </p><p><strong>09:42 - </strong>Industry performance update </p><p><strong>10:38 - </strong>Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?</p><p><strong>13:28 - </strong>Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?</p><p><strong>20:49 - </strong>Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend? </p><p><strong>25:41 - </strong>Libor Futures being replaced </p><p><strong>30:41 - </strong>Blogpost about estimating standard deviation </p><p><strong>38:01 - </strong>Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction</p><p><strong>43:37 - </strong>Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging</p><p><strong>56:22 - </strong>Reasons Not to trend follow </p><p><strong>01:09:50 - </strong>Thanks for listening </p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>