GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz

<p>Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Hari on <a href="https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p>Follow Mika on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mika-kastenholz/?locale=en_US" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn.</a></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>02:20 -</strong> Introduction to Mika Kastenholz</p><p><strong>09:25 -</strong> Working with econophysics</p><p><strong>10:52 -</strong> Finding the perfect size</p><p><strong>12:05 -</strong> Mika's view on naive sizing</p><p><strong>13:19 -</strong> The macro perspective</p><p><strong>16:27 -</strong> Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve</p><p><strong>18:46 -</strong> A changing environment</p><p><strong>21:01 -</strong> The impact of post 2008 regulations</p><p><strong>23:29 -</strong> Hedging the autocallable structures</p><p><strong>29:30 -</strong> Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage</p><p><strong>31:42 -</strong> Swing options - a relic of the past?</p><p><strong>33:30 -</strong> Has the depth of the markets decreased?</p><p><strong>35:31 -</strong> How does cross margining work today?</p><p><strong>36:51 -</strong> What happens with a large client trade?</p><p><strong>38:59 -</strong> Dealing with regulations</p><p><strong>42:51 -</strong> Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?</p><p><strong>45:48 -</strong> What if every bank had the same risk limits?</p><p><strong>48:15 -</strong> Are the banks aware of network effects?</p><p><strong>50:13 -</strong> Is the complex systems push overstated?</p><p><strong>54:09 -</strong> An anomaly that could be exploited?</p><p><strong>57:06 -</strong> A confused market</p><p><strong>59:19 -</strong> The outlook for the term premia</p><p><strong>01:01:10 -</strong> Key takeaways from Niels</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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