GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

<p>Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. </p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Alan on <a href="https://twitter.com/alanjdunne" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p>Follow Chen on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/chen-zhao-a7668416/?originalSubdomain=ca" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn.</a></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>02:13 - </strong>Who is Chen Zhao?</p><p><strong>06:19 - </strong>Why has the economy been so resilient?</p><p><strong>11:20 - </strong>The typical electoral cycle?</p><p><strong>16:44 - </strong>The outlook for inflation</p><p><strong>19:27 - </strong>Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?</p><p><strong>26:07 - </strong>Rates going back to zero?</p><p><strong>28:48 - </strong>Achieving high sustained investment growth</p><p><strong>31:01 - </strong>The effect of moving towards climate friendly production</p><p><strong>32:57 - </strong>China - a deflationary force</p><p><strong>38:38 - </strong>Bond yields - any surprises?</p><p><strong>39:29 - </strong>Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?</p><p><strong>42:07 - </strong>Have yields reached their peak?</p><p><strong>42:54 - </strong>The situation in Europe</p><p><strong>45:20 - </strong>Back to the 2010s?</p><p><strong>46:36 - </strong>A global increase in spending?</p><p><strong>47:37 - </strong>Concerns from a global risk perspective</p><p><strong>51:00 - </strong>The Japanese economy</p><p><strong>52:35 - </strong>The outlook for emerging markets</p><p><strong>54:45 - </strong>Advice for other traders</p><p><strong>55:59 - </strong>Thanks for listening</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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