SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver

<p>This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Rob on <a href="https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps:</strong> </p><p><strong>02:26 - </strong>What has been on our radar recently?</p><p><strong>06:31 - </strong>Industry performance update</p><p><strong>13:41 - </strong>Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?</p><p><strong>23:50 -</strong> Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?</p><p><strong>26:18 -</strong> Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?</p><p><strong>32:08 -</strong> Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?</p><p><strong>43:09 -</strong> Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing</p><p><strong>50:37 -</strong> A win for trend following</p><p><strong>59:32 -</strong> Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?</p><p><strong>01:01:53 - </strong>The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation</p><p><strong>01:09:57 - </strong>Thanks for listening</p><p>Resources discussed in this Episode:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Why-Not-100-Equities">LINK SI288: Why Not 100% Equities</a></li><li><a href="https://www.wellington.com/en/insights/can-hedge-funds-play-the-role?utm_source=LinkedIn&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=alts-organic-global-WM">LINK SI288: Can hedge funds play the role?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.man.com/maninstitute/road-ahead-regime-based-investing">LINK SI286: The Road Ahead: Regime-Based Investing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.man.com/maninstitute/road-ahead-regime-based-investing">LINK SI286: Regime-Based Investing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.man.com/maninstitute/views-from-the-floor-2024-January-23">LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following When Rates Are Being Cut</a></li><li><a href="https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/Driving-with-the-Rear-View-Mirror">LINK SI280: Driving with the Rear-View Mirror</a></li><li><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2268556">LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.man.com/maninstitute/z-shift-framework-empirical-evaluation">LINK SI280: Dial Up Return, Not Risk: The Z-Shift Framework</a></li><li><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2268556">LINK SI280: Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No</a></li><li><a href="https://www.alphasimplex.com/insights/">LINK: Insights from AlphaSimplex</a></li></ul><br /><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score </strong></p><p>One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>3. Other Resources that can help you</strong></p><p>And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Privacy Policy</a></p><p><a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></p>