GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
October 30, 2024
59 min
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768 of 941

October 30, 2024
GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
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The Sharpe Exchange Episodes Around October 30, 2024
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59:13This episodeGM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman
Summary
<p>Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis. </p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating & Review</strong> on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a> or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Alan on <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/alanjdunne" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a><strong>.</strong></p><p>Follow Jason on <a href="https://x.com/jasonfurman" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter.</strong></a></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>02:10 -</strong> Introduction to Jason Furman</p><p><strong>04:28 -</strong> The state of the economy</p><p><strong>04:42 -</strong> Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?</p><p><strong>06:01 -</strong> Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?</p><p><strong>09:40 -</strong> The outlook for inflation</p><p><strong>12:34 -</strong> A move in the right direction?</p><p><strong>14:34 -</strong> Is the neutral rate a useful concept?</p><p><strong>17:35 -</strong> The risk of being too sensitive to current data</p><p><strong>21:05 -</strong> Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?</p><p><strong>22:28 -</strong> Is the economy too complicated to forecast?</p><p><strong>23:44 -</strong> Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?</p><p><strong>26:46 -</strong> Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits</p><p><strong>28:29 -</strong> Has the Treasury managed the situation right?</p><p><strong>31:34 -</strong> Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?</p><p><strong>34:46 -</strong> Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?</p><p><strong>36:32 -</strong> A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?</p><p><strong>37:57 -</strong> Is the Fed in danger?</p><p><strong>39:24 -</strong> Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?</p><p><strong>40:54 -</strong> Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?</p><p><strong>43:57 -</strong> Is AI a threat to employment?</p><p><strong>45:25 -</strong> Furman's perspective on the industrial policy</p><p><strong>49:33 -</strong> Are we going too far in the wrong direction?</p><p><strong>51:06 -</strong> China's influence on the global economy</p><p><strong>54:05 -</strong> The outlook of economical growth</p><p><strong>55:38 -</strong> Is Europe in trouble?</p><p><strong>57:12 -</strong> Advice for other investors</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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