Americas Quarterly
Americas Quarterly
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The Gray Tide: Latin America's Demographic Transformation

Posted

April 21, 2026

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Latin America is in the early days of a historic demographic transformation, one that seems destined to reshape politics, businesses, communities, and lifestyles for decades to come.

Statistics only begin to capture the impact. According to UN data, the fertility rate in Latin America is now 1.8 births per woman: down from six in 1950, and below the replacement level of 2.1. By 2100, if current trends hold, national populations will decline by a third in Chile and Uruguay, a quarter in Brazil, and a fifth in Argentina.

This has sent policymakers scrambling to gauge the impact on everything from taxes and pensions to future economic growth. Will the region adapt?

AQ’s latest special report on the demographic transformation is out today. Read it in full through the link in our bio.

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The Gray TideLatin AmericaArgentina This

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