Analyzing the risks and rewards for Iran in ceasefire

President Donald Trump has found an off‑ramp to the five‑week war with Iran through a ceasefire deal. But questions remain about whether the deal can hold and if the U.S. and Iran can reach a long‑term agreement.

Meanwhile, both Washington and Tehran have declared victory.

Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, can’t see how “the United States can suggest it won the war” after the “Iranians have proven their point” through what he called the “security guarantee” they now have.

“The security guarantee is that they can menace the strategic waterways and impede global commerce when they don't like something that's happening somewhere else,” Takeyh said.

Alex Vantanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned of Iran becoming “overconfident,” as it did during the Iran-Iraq war.

“If they overreach, then who knows? It's not just going to be another round of conflict. It could be another round of conflict with the United States backed by others, which was missing because the United States never really sold this idea of war with Iran in this round we just had,” Vantanka added. “But that could change if you have a country that wants to take over the Strait of Hormuz, and essentially take the global economy hostage.”

Compass Points from PBS News analyzes prominent international affairs topics and America’s role in a shifting world, breaking down global conflicts, rising tensions and their implications for U.S. interests. Visit the PBS News website to watch this week's episode.

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