Will China's Army Intervene in the Hong Kong Protests?

It has suddenly become one of the biggest questions in Hong Kong: What will the Chinese military do?

After 8 weeks of increasingly violent unrest -- and more anti-government protests planned for this weekend -- anxiety is growing that Beijing might call in the People’s Liberation Army. China seems willing to at least feed the speculation with hints and signals, including the release of a video Wednesday showing troops practicing riot control.

While a military intervention appears remote, the possibility has set nerves on edge in the former British colony and prompted at least one investment bank to flag it as a risk. Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule 22 years ago, the PLA’s troops in the city have played a minimal role. Should that change, the implications for both Hong Kong and China would be enormous.

The biggest fear for some is a repeat of the deadly crackdown that took place in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square three decades ago, potentially prompting the U.S. to withdraw special trade privileges for Hong Kong. But even smaller-scale intervention could spark a knee-jerk exodus from the city’s financial markets, drag down property prices and prompt international companies to reconsider their presence in the territory, analysts say.

Hong Kong’s image as a cosmopolitan financial center would risk suffering irreparable damage, as would the concept of “one country, two systems” that has underpinned the city’s success since the 1997 handover.

China, meanwhile, would face potential economic sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, an emboldened pro-independence movement in Taiwan and increased financial risks for companies that rely on Hong Kong as a gateway to international investors -- all while grappling with Donald Trump’s trade war and the slowest economic expansion since foreign investment collapsed after Tiananmen.

The consequences would be so severe that most analysts interviewed by Bloomberg News described military intervention as a highly unlikely scenario -- a last resort that Chinese President Xi Jinping would only consider if protesters overwhelmed the local police force and put China’s control over the territory in doubt.

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