October 15, 2019
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1:06Now PlayingA third rate cut in 2019 appears almost certain to occur on October 30, but the rate path for 2020 is far from clear. The Federal Open Market Committee is divided into two camps. The first is convinced of a trade-war related recession and wants more cuts sooner. The other camp believes the trade war has impacted only corporate profits, not economic growth, and is not forecasting a recession. They would prefer to see no further rate cuts beyond October. Right now the direction for 2020 is anybody’s guess, and the outcome is likely to be dictated by the future movement of the U.S. unemployment rate. Insights via @CMEGroup
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