The Democratic Hopefuls You Won't See at Tonights Debate

The fifth Democratic presidential debate is set to take place Wednesday night in Atlanta with 10 hopefuls converging on the stage. But plenty more are still running. These are the Democratic candidates who didn't make it to #DemDebate due to fundraising and/or polling shortfalls. #DemocraticDebate

Most eyes this time, and perhaps a round of attacks, will be focused on South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who has surged into an apparent polling lead in Iowa. He got good reviews after the last debate, received a positive reception at recent Iowa “cattle-call” events, and has taken advantage of successful fundraising efforts to put out a healthy dose of campaign advertising.

Will he last? No idea. So far, though, the pattern that the political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides have identified as “discovery, scrutiny and decline” has been an excellent guide to the shifting polling in this campaign. Right now, Buttigieg is in the discovery phase — when the media shifts its attention to a new candidate, introduces his or her strengths to the public, and thereby helps induce a surge in the polls. Once the candidate has made it into the spotlight, the media typically starts to balance out its initial enthusiastic coverage and rivals begin to attack, leading to an eventual decline in support. In the 2020 race, that cycle has so far held for both Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

To get discovered, however, a candidate has to be in the ballgame. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro failed to make this debate; Representative Beto O’Rourke has dropped out altogether. Castro, who has run a good campaign and attracted some support from party actors, now joins the group of candidates — including Montana Governor Steve Bullock, Senator Michael Bennet and others — who might’ve had a chance to win if they’d made it to the top tier and consistently qualified for debates, but who now have little realistic hope.

Which brings me to the contender with the most on the line Wednesday: Senator Cory Booker. Booker has been dead in the polls for a while now, and hasn’t yet qualified for the December debate, but he still has real strengths. He’s a mainstream liberal, holds orthodox policy positions, has conventional qualifications for the job, and has demonstrated support from party actors. In fact, he’s still in a respectable fourth place in endorsements. But he’s running out of time. If he can’t draw some positive publicity very soon — with the debate his only real chance to do so — he’s going to get less and less national media attention.

The two other candidates with a lot at stake this week are Harris and Senator Amy Klobuchar. Harris has slumped badly, but still retains the strengths that once put her in that top group; Klobuchar has moved up since a well-regarded performance in the last debate, and it’s easy to imagine her moving up further still, but for now she’s still well behind the top polling tier.

The others? Buttigieg, Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders would all benefit from a good debate and some positive publicity, of course, but they’re all safely in the mix until the Iowa caucuses in February at least, and any effects from this week’s debate will likely be long forgotten by then. What I’m particularly watching isn’t their debate performance — it’s those endorsement lists, and other signs of party support. Buttigieg, in particular, hasn’t attracted a single high-profile endorsement over the past two months, and is actually losing ground to Castro by that metric.

Debates are at least as important for settling party preferences and priorities as they are for the horse race. But as for the horse race? Keep your eyes on the candidates who need to get themselves into the top tier now to have any chance of winning.

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