Biden and Trump Attack Go Positive as 2020 Election Nears

President Donald Trump’s hospitalization for Covid-19 rumbled through the 2020 race in one noticeable way: a sharp, if temporary, drop in negative campaign ads.

Advertisements from Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden have shifted toward more positive spots over the past week since the president’s diagnosis, according to data compiled by Advertising Analytics.

Biden’s campaign ads were already remarkably positive compared to previous elections, with less than 10% of his ads qualifying as the 30-second attack ad genre that’s become a staple of modern campaigns.

Perhaps even more surprising is that Trump, too, has become more positive in recent days. Since his hospitalization, the Trump campaign has slowly and quietly replaced its own attack ads with spots that emphasize his economic record, his commitment to seniors, and his “boundless optimism.” As of Thursday, about 77% of Trump’s ads this week were entirely positive.

All told, the presidential campaigns and their allies are now running ads that are 68% positive — the most upbeat tone since June, according to the data. That’s a sharp contrast to the vitriol exchanged by the candidates themselves.

And it may be changing. Now that Trump is back on his feet, Biden’s campaign said this week it would end its temporary hold on negative ads. And Trump upped his share of negative ads from 18% Tuesday to 25% Wednesday and Thursday, but for the week he’s still more positive than at any time since August.

Campaigns generally try to end their campaigns on a positive note, says Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which studies political advertising. But with so many people voting early or voting absentee, campaigns are making their closing arguments early.

“Now is the time to deliver your positive message,” Ridout said.

The shift in tone also comes amid a Biden strategy of reaching out to religious voters with two television ads specifically targeted to Catholic and evangelical Christian audiences. In them, Biden is seen talking to a priest about his Catholic faith, and reciting scripture from the King James Bible. “The Psalm tells us, weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning,” Biden says.

Those ads come also as Democrats prepare to fight Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Her confirmation hearings for a federal judgeship were marked by Democrats questioning the depth of her Catholic faith and Republicans are using that now to call Democrats anti-religion.

Trump took a similar tack, going positive the week after his first presidential debate with Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s campaign waited until the last week of October to shift to positive ads — but then went back on the attack in November.

This year’s shift in tone might be perilous for Trump, given that he faces a 9-point deficit in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. Negative ads are one of the best ways to shake up a race, Ridout said, and by switching to positive spots Trump might be losing one of his last opportunities to do so.

The Trump campaign wouldn’t discuss its ad strategy but suggested the tone shift was intentional.

It’s unclear how long the truce will last but at least for now both campaigns are saying they’ll stick to the high road in their ads.

“Joe Biden chooses to see our country as something to be ashamed of,” said Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager. “President Trump is running a campaign founded on boundless optimism and faith in the American way of life.”

The Biden campaign said it, too, wanted to project a more optimistic case for Biden but wouldn’t be afraid to respond in kind if Trump resumes his attack ads.

“Our campaign has always been about making the positive case for Joe Biden,” said Biden spokesman Mike Gwin. “We’re going to continue to make a full throated case for Vice President Biden and we will forcefully correct the record when Trump attacks and lies.”

Just because an ad is positive doesn’t mean that it can’t make contrasts by implication. One Biden ad launched this week — the day before stimulus talks collapsed after Trump pulled out of talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — took aim at Trump’s self-proclaimed ability to make deals.

“For Joe, it’s never been about ego. It’s always been about the work he can do for working families. It’s what he’s always done. Joe Biden brings everyone to the table and gets it done.”

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