Theaters Concerned as Disney Plans 2021 Movie Releases Straight to Streaming

Warner Bros. is Hollywood’s new favorite piñata. Ever since the studio announced it will release a year’s worth of movies on its streaming service the same day they will debut in theaters, one Hollywood macher after another has criticized the move.

Movie theaters blamed the studio for hastening the threat of bankruptcy. Director Christopher Nolan called HBO Max the worst streaming service. Director Denis Villeneuve compared AT&T to a slaughterhouse. And the talent agencies accused Warner Bros. of self-dealing.

I covered a lot of this on Twitter, so I am not going deep on the motivations or flaws underpinning many of these critiques. Instead, I want to draw attention to a specific point made by Villeneuve in his essay for the Hollywood trade publication Variety.

Unlike many agents and financiers worried about their payday, Villeneuve seems genuinely upset that his movie won’t be released exclusively on the big screen, and concerned about the future of cinema. But there is one quote that demonstrates a lack of awareness about what is happening in the entertainment business:

“Streaming can produce great content, but not movies of 'Dune’s' scope and scale,” wrote Villeneuve.

Try telling that to director Alfonso Cuaron, who made “Roma” for a streaming service. Or David Fincher, Gina Prince-Bythewood and the many, many filmmakers who now work in streaming.

Many of the best movies on streaming services do appear in theaters, and will continue to do so. Netflix released “Roma” in theaters and for streaming, and the movie went on to win three Oscars. Villeneuve’s “Dune” will be released in theaters worldwide next year, assuming theaters are open. It will also be available at home for people who don’t feel safe going to the theater -- or don’t want to.

Streaming is not a genre of project; it is a means of access. We are also leaving the period where a streaming movie is a lesser genre because streaming has shrunk the gulf in cost between film and TV. If you have any doubts about this, please watch Disney’s investor presentation from this past week. Disney Executive Chairman Bob Iger said that many of the new shows for Disney+ will cost the same as a movie, they just won't be as long.

As Disney goes, so goes Hollywood. Disney is the most powerful entertainment company in the world, and owns the most beloved entertainment franchises in Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar and Disney Animation. Before the pandemic, it largely reserved them for the movie theaters, a business it dominated like no other studio in modern history.

But the pandemic has changed its trajectory for good. The coronavirus damaged its business due to Disney’s reliance on parks and movie theaters. The company’s theme parks alone lost $6.9 billion in the most recent fiscal year due to the pandemic.

And yet, its stock is at an all-time high. Because while every other media company is trying to prove it can weather the demise of profitable cable TV networks and create a future on the internet, Disney has already done it.

Disney+ added close to 90 million subscribers in one year, nearly surpassing the upper end of its forecast for 2024. Under its new forecasts, Disney projected it will have more than 300 million streaming customers in total, at least 230 million of whom will pay for Disney+. Based on current pricing, Disney's streaming business will generate more than $30 billion in sales by 2024, eclipsing the current size of its TV networks.

The company has now committed to streaming video more aggressively than any legacy media company (other than maybe WarnerMedia), and it’s got more resources to throw at streaming than anyone, including Netflix. Disney is now unleashing Star Wars, Marvel and Pixar on streaming in the form of both series and original films. The company will soon release a new episode or movie of its most popular franchises every single week.

Sure, Disney will release a handful of movies for exclusive theatrical runs. But the distinction between those movies and what’s on Disney+ is fading by the day.

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