Results From 2020 U.S. Census Show Texas to Gain House Seats, New York Loses

Texas will gain the most new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives under new Census numbers released Monday, while states in the Northeast and Midwest will lose seven seats, shifting some political clout to Republican strongholds before the 2022 midterms.

The U.S. Census Bureau released its every 10 year count of state populations Monday, reshuffling the 435 House seats among the 50 states to account for population changes over the last decade.

Those changes alone could be enough to decide the balance of power: Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the House now, with a margin of less than half a dozen seats.

The states gaining seats are largely ones that former President Donald Trump won in 2020, while states President Joe Biden won -- including the so-called “Blue Wall” states of the industrial North -- are losers.

And because the Electoral College factors in House representation, those states will lose influence in the 2024 presidential vote.

There is one bright spot for Democrats, as demographic changes also mean that Republican strongholds such as Texas are becoming more Democratic, putting the party closer to its long-term goal of someday moving the Lone Star state out of the Republican column.

The Census also announced that the total U.S. population stands at 331,449,281 people, a 7.4% growth since 2010, but the second-slowest growth decade in U.S. history.

Later this year, the Census Bureau will release data that shows the growth in population centers, and that will guide states in redrawing their congressional district maps. That promises to set off contentious debates in states where partisan legislators draw the district lines.

With only seven seats changing hands, there are actually fewer changes to the political map than at any time since at least the 1940s. Before the pandemic, domestic migration had reached its lowest levels since World War II, slowing the long-term trend of people moving to the Sun Belt. But the narrow margin Democrats hold in the House and the nation’s deep political divisions make any change more significant.

California, while still the most populous state, will lose a congressional seat for the first time since it joined the Union in 1850.

As states in the Industrial north lose population, they're also projected to lose congressional seats to Western and Sun Belt states

The release of the top-level apportionment data Monday was four months behind schedule, as the coronavirus pandemic hit just when the Census Bureau was launching the constitutionally required national head count.

The delayed start could create added chaos at the filing deadlines for next year’s congressional elections, as incumbents and their challengers won’t know which districts they’re running for until their campaigns have already started.

It could also help force some House members to retire or run for higher office. On Monday, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan announced plans to run for the U.S. Senate after conceding that the new maps will make it harder for his Youngstown-area House district to stay in Democratic hands.

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