Ian Threatens to Become Worst Hurricane to Hit Tampa in Century

Hurricane Ian is gaining power as it nears Cuba on a path toward Florida, threatening to become the worst storm to hit Tampa in a century.

Ian’s winds continued to strengthen, reaching 85 miles (137 kilometers) an hour as it churned in the Caribbean about 195 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2 p.m. New York time. A hurricane watch is in effect along Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay. More than 300,000 people are expected to evacuate.

“Life-threatening storm surge is possible along much of the Florida west coast, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region,” Brad Reinhart, a hurricane specialist at the center, said in his analysis. Tropical storm winds could reach Florida late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions arriving Wednesday morning. Significant river flooding is likely across central parts of the state.

Ian’s center is set to pass near the Cayman Islands Monday and then overnight near western Cuba, where the storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 14 feet (4 meters) above normal, according to the hurricane center. Rains could produce flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel warned the Communist nation Monday that it would be facing a “challenging week” as Ian barrels down on the western tip of the island.

“We must defend human lives and material goods,” he wrote on Twitter. “We cannot fail.”

The island is suspending train service starting at noon and some schools were being closed, state-run Cuba Debate reported. Hurricane alerts were issued for seven western provinces including the capital, Havana.

Ian will likely be the first major storm to hit the continental US this year. AccuWeather Inc. expects the storm will ride up Florida’s west coast and make landfall Friday. Hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, so in Ian’s case its strongest side would be pointed directly at the Florida coastline.

“It is going to be a very dangerous storm,” said Paul Walker, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.

Ian’s winds are forecast to peak at 140 miles per hour late Tuesday through Wednesday, before dropping to 120 mph on Thursday, the center said. The storm will encounter wind shear in 36 to 48 hours, which will hold it back from gaining even more strength.

Still, Hurricane Ian would be the worst storm to hit Tampa in 101 years, according to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. The area has had many close calls in recent years, including Elsa last year and Irma in September 2017, but the last devastating strike on the Tampa-St. Petersburg area was a 1921 storm that would have caused $30 billion if it hit today.

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