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Putin's Ukraine War Budget Won't Take a Hit From EU Oil Price Cap
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December 16, 2022
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1:26Now PlayingThe Group of Seven’s price ceiling on Russian oil exports isn’t low enough to take a big bite out of the Kremlin’s revenues next year and economists say even if it does lead to a drop in crude production, Vladimir Putin still has plenty of cash for his war effort, at least for now.
At $60 per barrel, “the price cap looks very generous,” said Renaissance Capital economist Sofya Donets. “It is close to what was priced in by the market for 2023 and to the level suggested in Russia’s budget.”
European officials touted the cap — negotiated last week after months of haggling among the US and its allies — as a way to starve Russia’s war machine. In fact, planners took pains to make sure the level wasn’t so low that it led the Kremlin to significantly cut production, which would risk pushing up global prices. Russia so far hasn’t announced its response, but officials say they plan to continue to divert flows to countries like China and India that aren’t formally signing up to the price limit.
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