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The Election Was Supposed to Be Close. Were the Polls Wrong?

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November 8, 2024

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To anyone following the presidential election, the polls made the race out to be a real nail-biter that could take days, if not weeks, to decide. Yet here we are on the morning after Election Day, and Donald Trump has won convincingly, besting Kamala Harris in five swing states and leading her in the other two. His win is part of a broad American shift to the right: Republicans have taken control of the Senate and are poised to retain their majority in the House. #trump #harris #election #politics

Did the polls get it wrong? Well, it certainly doesn’t feel like they got it right. But it’ll take weeks or months for the industry to do a full autopsy to know what went wrong, and just how wrong things went.

On Election Day, polls showed an incredibly close race between Trump and Harris in every battleground state. Pennsylvania and Nevada were dead even, according to the polling averages from 538, the poll aggregation and analysis website. Averages in Michigan and Wisconsin—crucial states for Harris to hold—showed her up by only one point.

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The Election Was Supposed to Be Close. Were the Polls Wrong? · Bloomberg News · Sentinel