The World Wants the Fed to Stop Raising Rates | Stephanomics

There's evidence the Federal Reserve may have finally gained the upper hand in its war against inflation, a potential relief not only for US investors but also real estate agents 8,000 miles away in Hong Kong. The central bank's year-long rate-hike campaign has stymied America's housing market as well as that of the Asian financial hub, and people on both continents will be glad to see the back of it.

This week, we explore how global challenges like inflation, rising interest rates and worker shortages are moving markets in three continents. First, Chief US Economist Anna Wong tells host Stephanie Flanders that, while inflation appears to be slowing in the US, it's too early to tell if the Fed has won the war. Too many risks remain in the global economy, including Russia cutting its oil production or China's reopening sending commodities prices soaring.

What appears more clear, Wong says, is that someone may have gotten a heads-up on this week's surprising US inflation report. A minute before the Consumer Price Index numbers went public, someone traded heavily on Treasury futures. "So, by being a bit early, before everybody gets the same data, somebody is making a lot of money with that move,'' she says.

Next, we travel to Hong Kong, home to one of the world's priciest property markets. Reporter Enda Curran and producer Yang Yang visit a 33rd-floor apartment that just sold for $3.2 million -- a relative bargain for a unit with a view of the famous Happy Valley Racecourse. In a better market, it might have fetched almost 10% more, the unit's real estate agent said. While China's restrictive "Covid zero" policy may be partly to blame, so too is US monetary policy. Since Hong Kong's currency is linked to the US dollar, Fed rate hikes ricochet across the city's system. And just as US housing prices are cooling off, economists say prices here could fall 30% from their peak.

Finally, reporter Alessandra Migliaccio shares how Italy's legendary fashion companies are struggling to persuade young people to make 1,000-euro boots. The nation's youth unemployment rate is almost 24%, but roughly one in every two job postings in the luxury industry goes unfilled, according to trade group Altagamma. New Fendi Chief Executive Officer Serge Brunschwig is on something of a crusade to reverse the trend and get Italian youth to take up the craft. Still, it's no easy sell. In the words of one 18-year-old who's learning shoemaking, ``People say, `Oh, you make shoes? That’s a bit useless.'"

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Will Covid-19 reshape the global economy or simply shrink it? What are nations doing to protect jobs and businesses from the fallout, and what will the long-term consequences be for labor markets, global supply chains and government finances? On Stephanomics, a podcast hosted by Bloomberg Economics head Stephanie Flanders—the former BBC economics editor and chief market strategist for Europe at JPMorgan Asset Management—we combine reports from Bloomberg journalists around the world and conversations with internationally respected experts on these and other issues to bring the global economy to life.

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