What If There Was a Recession and No One Noticed? | What Goes Up

The disconnect between a roaring stock market and stubborn recession predictions has left many investors scratching their heads. The equity strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence however have an intriguing explanation: Maybe the part of the economic downdraft most likely to impact stocks started last year, and the worst could already be over.

That’s what an economic-regime model suggests, according to BI Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams and her team. She joined the What Goes Up podcast to explain how the model works, and offer her mid-year update on the market.

The model uses month-over-month changes in capacity utilization, continuing jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment level to define the economy’s health. “This indicator started suggesting there were economic risks emerging for the equity market as early as June of last year,” Martin Adams says. “And then it hit just an outright low level, like a low that you never see outside of recession. We effectively had this big loss of momentum in the economy that impacted the equity market—extremely negatively—between June and December.”

She says that, by the model’s measure, the economy still isn’t out of the woods. “It’s still terrible. The reading is awful. It suggests we may actually still be in some form of an economic correction or recession, but it’s off of the low,” Martin Adams says. “So this is what’s really meaningful for price direction: As we know, equity prices are driven by shifts in momentum.”

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Hosts Mike Regan and Vildana Hajric are joined each week by expert guests to discuss the main themes influencing global markets. They explore everything from stocks to bonds to currencies and commodities, and how each asset class affects trading in the others. Whether you’re a financial professional or just a curious retirement saver, What Goes Up keeps you apprised of the latest buzz on Wall Street and what the wildest movements in markets will mean for your investments.

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