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The Four Big Structural Forces Holding Back China's Economy | Odd Lots
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August 21, 2023
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45:05Now PlayingThe Chinese economy is in a slump. Industrial production is down. Retail sales are down. The property industry continues to struggle. The People's Bank of China just did a surprise rate cut. So what's driving the decline and what can the government do about it? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the new book Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. She explains how the "four Ds" — demand, debt, demographics and decoupling — are acting as a persistent drag on the Chinese economy right now. We discuss possible policy responses and how China's war chest of financial assets plays into the government's strategy.
Key insights from the pod:
Intro — 0:00
The four big structural forces holding China’s economy back — 4:31
On China’s economic growth slowing before Covid — 5:58
Why is China reluctant to directly stimulate households? — 9:38
The party’s role in business now versus under Deng Xiaoping — 13:17
Would direct household support go back into real estate? — 18:10
Why China’s economy is founded on financial repression — 22:22
What is decoupling and derisking in China? — 25:49
Could China use its reserve assets to support the economy? — 28:29
What is the purpose of China’s sovereign wealth funds? — 31:13
Is there political appetite to use SWFs for domestic support? — 33:50
What are China’s global ambitions anyway? — 39:00
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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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