'Dramatic' Tariffs to Push US Economy Into Recession: JPM's Bob Michele

Bond traders have lifted bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid concern that President Donald Trump’s trade war will backfire on the US economy, sending the yield on benchmark Treasuries toward the closely-watched 4% level."

Ten-year yields declined as much as nine basis points on Thursday to 4.04%, the lowest level since October. Money markets started to price a small chance of the Fed delivering four quarter-point rate reductions this year, a scenario that wasn’t contemplated on Wednesday.

Concern that the steepest increase in American tariffs in a century will hammer economic growth is driving a fierce rally in global bond markets, with yields on European and UK bonds also plunging. Similarly, traders ramped up wagers on monetary easing from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, boosting the chances that both deliver three more cuts this year.

Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Investment Officer and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, breaks down the economic implications of the latest trade war salvos and what he believes the Fed will do in response. Bob speaks with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.

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