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Oil Prices Feel Impact of Trade Turmoil Ahead of US-Iran Meeting
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April 11, 2025
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8:08Now PlayingEllen Wald, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, discusses the Trump administration's approach to the global oil market - including Iran, as the US and Iran prepare to meet in Oman this weekend.
Oil rebounded on Friday, but remained en route to a second weekly slump as the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies drove wild volatility.
West Texas Intermediate futures advanced more than 1% to trade above $60 a barrel after China raised its tariffs on all US goods to 125%, but said it will pay no attention to further hikes from Washington. Prices were on pace for a loss of almost 2% this week.
The conflict between China and the US has triggered frantic selloffs in stocks, bonds and commodities on concerns the dispute will reduce global growth. The US Energy Information Administration has slashed its forecasts for crude demand this year by almost 500,000 barrels a day, and oil market gauges further along the futures curve are pointing to an oversupply.
Oil has retreated about 15% in April, also hurt by an OPEC+ decision to bring back output more quickly than expected. The US levies include a punitive 145% charge on imports from China, which has retaliated with its own tariffs as ties between the two superpowers come under immense strain.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Bloomberg Television on Friday that the market’s recent selloff is overblown, as the US will ultimately have a stronger economy under President Donald Trump. He added that he expects to see higher volumes of US crude and natural gas liquids produced under the current president.
Oil’s retreat has led to declines in associated products, with US gasoline futures dropping more than 3% this week.
“High-level economic uncertainty is challenging for a macro-sensitive commodity such as oil, and we expect prices will remain under pressure,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note. In addition, “we currently factor in a continued, gradual unwinding of the OPEC+ production cuts.”
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