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Earnings Forecast Cut Not Just Over Tariffs: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

Posted

April 15, 2025

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Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson cuts his 2025 earnings-per-share forecast for S&P 500 firms to $257 from $271 due to tariffs uncertainty.

Wilson’s team also revises its 2026 EPS forecast down to $281 from $303

The strategists see the back and forth on policy exacerbating uncertainty for businesses and consumers and the Federal Reserve remaining on the sidelines

See the S&P 500 trading at a range from 5000-5500

The strategists consider the probability of a recession still elevated at around 40%, though lower than before thanks to the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and further concessions over the weekend

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Earnings Forecast Cut Not Just Over Tariffs: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson · Bloomberg Podcasts · Sentinel