Mar-a-Lago Membership Fees Help Explain Trump’s Tariff Obsession

Bloomberg Businessweek National Correspondent Josh Green reflects on President Trump's messaging on tariffs as a candidate and what that reveals about the motivation behind his current trade policy.

Last July, just before Donald Trump’s first and only debate with Joe Biden, a team from Bloomberg Businessweek traveled to Mar-a-Lago to interview Trump about his plans for the economy if he returned to the White House. Our 90-minute discussion spanned all the major topics: tax cuts, deregulation, China, the Federal Reserve and the fate of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Afterward, as we were leaving, our team compared notes about what we’d learned and what had most surprised us. In the latter category, everyone was struck—and frankly a bit puzzled—by how eager Trump had been to talk about William McKinley, the 25th president. Twice, Trump brought him up unprompted, discoursing at some length about how McKinley was “the most underrated president” and one who “made this country rich.”

McKinley was, of course, a fervent protectionist and author of the McKinley Tariff Act of 1890, which raised average import duties to almost 50%—among the highest rates in US history at the time. In hindsight, Trump’s fixation with the man he admiringly dubbed “the Tariff King” was a clue that foreshadowed the global trade war he’d launch on “Liberation Day,” April 2.

Trump’s sweeping tariff regime roiled markets, driving the S&P 500 to the brink of a bear market and sending yields on long-term US bonds soaring. Wall Street titans, including many who’d backed Trump, reacted with alarm. Ken Griffin called the tariffs a “huge policy mistake.” Bill Ackman warned of “economic nuclear war.” Jamie Dimon grimly predicted a recession as the “likely outcome.” The scale and suddenness of Trump’s attack on US trading partners only magnified its impact—including the panic that ensued. No one had quite grasped what was coming. It cut against what investors thought they knew about Trump: that he should be taken “seriously, not literally”; that although he was disruptive and unpredictable, he ultimately longed for a booming stock market and the imprimatur of success he believed it conferred on him. And so, the thinking went, he’d never do anything to truly jeopardize that.

Even Trump’s closest economic advisers read him wrong. In a client note last year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was then running the hedge fund Key Square Group, predicted “an economic lollapalooza” to rival the Roaring Twenties if Trump were to return to the White House. Bessent wrote that it was foolish to worry about across-the-board tariffs, which he saw as “unlikely” since “tariffs are inflationary.” He added: “The tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged.”

Trump’s abrupt reversal on April 9—pausing tariffs on most countries just days after announcing them—only intensified the economic whiplash from a trade war that already seems destined to define his second term. Even as he eased some measures, he escalated others, ratcheting up duties on Chinese goods to 145%. Trump’s actions stand to reshape global trade and alliances while casting doubt on the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. It could upend domestic politics too. An April 8 YouGov survey found that only 16% of Americans said they believe Trump’s tariffs will improve their financial well-being, while 55% thought tariffs would hurt them—views that were consistent across age, race, gender and income groups.

After everyone misread Trump’s intentions, the multi-trillion-dollar question is what he might do next. It’s entirely possible, even likely, that he doesn’t know himself. But looking back at our July meeting, I’ve come to believe he revealed more about his thought process, on trade and everything else, than I appreciated at the time.

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