United Airlines Monitoring Trade War: CEO Scott Kirby

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby joins Bloomberg Television to discuss how the company is adjusting to the current tariff and trade war environment.

United Airlines Holdings Inc. took the unusual step of offering not one but two possible earnings scenarios, saying its 2025 outlook remains achievable but also warning that a recession could nearly halve its profit forecast.

The carrier’s shares rose 4.6% to $70.08 as of 9:34 a.m. in New York on Wednesday, a day after reporting first-quarter results that topped analysts’ expectations. The stock had tumbled about 33% this year through Tuesday’s close, more than triple the S&P 500’s decline in the same period.

United said it expects an adjusted profit of $11.50 to $13.50 a share if the current environment remains stable. Full-year earnings would drop to as little as $7 a share if the US economy enters a recession.

“We still see a viable path as long as bookings remain stable,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “We recognize there is more macro uncertainty, that people are fearful of a recession, so we wanted to give investors some outlook on what a recession would look like if it happens.

The dual-forecast approach offered a counter to warnings from rival airlines that growth and profits are at risk as President Donald Trump’s trade war rattles consumers, businesses and markets. Delta Air Lines Inc. last week withdrew its 2025 financial guidance due to global trade uncertainty and waning confidence among consumers and businesses that has “flat-lined” revenue growth. The parent of Frontier Airlines also withdrew its full-year profit outlook due to the murky economic environment.

“We like United’s guidance approach given the fluidity of the macro backdrop,” Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Linenberg said in a report.

Trump’s rapid trade policy shifts — slapping tariffs on countries and goods before granting relief soon after — have made it difficult for companies to forecast demand and earnings with any precision. United echoed that concern, saying the macroeconomic environment “is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence.”

“Even in their downside scenario they’re talking about $2.6 billion worth of profit,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson, who added that he’s never seen a company give a multi-scenario outlook before. “That’s a pretty good downside.”

While volatile trade policy has stoked concerns about demand, United said bookings remain stable. Premium cabin sales over the last two weeks were up 17% while international grew 5% year over year. The carrier’s first-quarter adjusted profit of 91 cents a share topped Wall Street’s expectation for 74 cents.

United also said adjusted profit in the current quarter will be $3.25 to $4.25 a share, compared to the $3.97 average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, deep government job cuts and changing border policies by the Trump administration have already cut into bookings for domestic trips. United said it will reduce that flying by four percentage points starting in the third quarter and will continue trimming some flying on low-demand days going into the fourth quarter. The airline earlier said it would retire 21 planes earlier than originally planned.

US carriers are now waiting to see if the delayed imposition of some tariffs will calm concerns and avoid a downturn in lucrative premium

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