Devil Could Be In Details for US-China Talks: Samm Sacks

Samm Sacks, professor of China studies at Yale University, said that both the US and China had incentives to find a deal on tariffs but negotiations could stall once they get down to the details.

Xi Jinping’s decision to stand his ground against Donald Trump could hardly have gone any better for the Chinese leader.

After two days of high-stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%.

The dramatic reduction exceeded expectations in China, and sent the dollar and stocks soaring — providing some much-needed market relief for Trump, who is facing pressure as inflation looks set to speed up at home. Chinese equities also surged.

The deal ended up meeting nearly all of Beijing’s core demands. The elevated “reciprocal” tariff for China, which Trump set at 34% on April 2, has been suspended — leaving America’s top rival with the same 10% rate that applies to the UK, a longtime ally.

The US met Beijing’s call for a point person for talks by setting up a mechanism headed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. And the two sides agreed to take “aggressive actions” to stem the flow of fentanyl, which could eventually lead to the elimination of the additional 20% tariff.

“This is arguably the best outcome that China could have hoped for — the US backed down,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of research firm Trivium China. “Going forward, this will make the Chinese side confident that they have leverage over the US in any negotiations.”

Xi struck a defiant tone ever since Trump began raising US tariffs to their highest level in a century. In contrast to other world leaders, he refused Trump’s repeated calls to get on the phone with the US president — even as levies rose to levels that China called a “joke.”

Officials in Beijing instead cut key interest rates and took other steps to fortify China’s economy, while dispatching diplomats around the world on a charm offensive to secure fresh markets for Chinese products and decry US “bullying.”

Although China began feeling economic pain, with factory activity starting to slump, Xi enjoyed a surge of nationalism at home encouraging him to avoid bending to US coercion. Trump, meanwhile, faced increasing pressure from business lobbies, market players and members of his party who feared losing their seats in mid-term elections next year.

“The lesson is economic power matters,” said Gerard DiPippo, associate director of the RAND China Research Center. “For Beijing, it’s a strategic vindication, and one that makes Xi’s focus on manufacturing and self-reliance harder to argue against, at least from an economic security perspective.”

Trump said Monday that he could speak to Xi as soon as the end of this week, as he touted a “total reset” in ties with China.

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