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Iran Missile Strike on Qatar Base Fits De-Escalation Playbook
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June 23, 2025
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4:01Now PlayingBloomberg's Nick Wadhams breaks down the military 'choreography' involved in Iran's strike on a US air base in Qatar after the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities Saturday.
Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend.
The Monday night assault, which involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which officials said had been largely evacuated. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said the number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs dropped by the US on the Islamic Republic days before and the strike “poses no danger” to Qatar, which it called “our friendly and brotherly country.”
One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region.
Oil prices slumped in the wake of Iran’s attack on the US base, with West Texas Intermediate plummeting by more than 6% to trade below $70 a barrel. That reflected investor sentiment that the Iranian strikes were less severe than feared and supplies from the Middle East won’t be disrupted.
“It feels choreographed and intentional,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East. “The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”
The Iranian strategy bore the hallmarks of the two strikes it launched against Israel last year — Tehran’s first-ever direct attacks on its long-time enemy. Those were meant to look overwhelming but caused little damage. And in 2020, after US President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike killing a top Iranian general during his first term, Iran responded with a missile barrage on a US-managed airbase in northern Iraq that resulted in no fatalities.
While consensus is building that the nature of Iran’s response gives everyone a chance to stand down, Trump still has a decision to make. He threatened “far greater” attacks if Iran didn’t respond peacefully to the US bombing over the weekend.
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