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5:39Now PlayingNed Lamont, Connecticut Governor (Democrat), joins Bloomberg Surveillance to offers his reaction to President Trump's tax bill as well as the current state and future of the Democratic party.
The next big fight over President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” will play out in midterm elections.
Republicans sent Trump the reconciliation bill (H.R. 1) by his Independence Day deadline, but now the focus shifts to its implementation and the war over the public’s perception of the legislation ahead of the next election cycle.
The bill is already leaving its mark on 2026. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) abruptly announced he wouldn’t seek reelection as he faced backlash from Trump over his opposition to the bill — opening up the race in battleground North Carolina.
Here’s a look at some of the other lawmakers expected to feel the bill’s reverberations:
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine): Collins is one of three Senate Republicans who voted against the megabill. Collins, who’s up for reelection in 2026, has been able to consistently win in a blue-leaning state in part because of her record as a moderate who doesn’t always fall in line with her party.
“My vote against this bill stems primarily from the harmful impact it will have on Medicaid,” she said. Collins worked to secure a fund for rural hospitals, but she said the final number, which landed at $50 billion, wasn’t enough.
Collins knows how to win tight races, but it’s a seat Democrats are eyeing as a possible opportunity in 2026. Democrats are already trying to pin responsibility on Collins for voting for the measure in a procedural motion, but her opposition on the final vote may help maintain her moderate reputation.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.): Swing-district moderate Fitzpatrick was one of just two Republicans to oppose the final version of Trump’s bill. He later panned the Senate’s changes to Medicaid, which he said “fell short” of protecting his suburban Philadelphia district.
Fitzpatrick’s decision, which follows an eight-year trend of bucking his party’s rightward lean, would likely pay off in a general election in his purple district. The same calculus has helped him outperform Republicans in his district and easily beat back Democratic challengers.
But Fitzpatrick took a risk that could hurt him if a well-funded, Trump-backed primary challenger comes along this cycle. Democrats would love to see Fitzpatrick lose his primary to a MAGA opponent — it would make the district a major pickup opportunity come 2026.
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