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Yen Advances as PM Ishiba Stays on as Leader After Election Setback

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July 21, 2025

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Jordan Rochester, Head of FICC Strategy at Mizuho EMEA, discusses the dollar-yen trade after the Japanese Prime Minister's election setback this weekend.

The yen strengthened versus the dollar on Monday after Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election. Japanese stock futures were little changed.

Japan’s currency, which had declined in the two weeks leading up to Sunday’s vote, gained more than 1% to trade at 147.29 versus the greenback at 10:35 a.m. in New York, on track for its best day in two months. With the stock and bond markets closed for a national holiday in Japan, the currency is the key asset to watch for investors.

Read more: Japan’s Ishiba Tries to Buy Time After Historic Election Setback

Heading into the election, even risk-taking hedge funds were last week holding off on Japanese assets as the outlook for the Ishiba’s government deteriorated. In the currency derivatives markets they turned bearish on the yen for the first time in nearly four months, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday for the week that ended on July 15.

“Some investors had positioned for a larger setback for the coalition and even anticipated Ishiba’s resignation,” said Akira Moroga, chief market strategist at Aozora Bank Ltd. “The unwinding of such positions, combined with relief that a political risk event has passed, contributed to the initial yen rebound.”

Moroga expects the yen to trade in a 145–150 range this week. Nomura sees further gains for the currency in the coming months, calling for a rise to 142 per dollar by the end of October.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party along with longtime partner Komeito lost its majority in the chamber, public broadcaster NHK reported. It’s the first time since 1955 that a leader from the storied Japanese party will govern the country without a majority in at least one of the legislative bodies.

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Guests & Subjects Covered

Jordan Rochester HeadFICC StrategyMizuho EMEAJapanese Prime Minister'sNew YorkJapans Ishiba TriesCommodity Futures Trading CommissionAkira Moroga

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