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Yale Budget Lab Says Trump Tariffs Will Mean Thousands in Costs for Families
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July 24, 2025
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7:56Now PlayingNatasha Sarin, president and co-founder of the Yale Budget Lab, breaks down her latest research into the impact of Trump tariffs on American families as the White House announces a new trade deal with Japan. Yale Budget Lab concludes that households will lose $2,700 on average after tariffs go into effect.
US industries and protectionists are raising alarms with President Donald Trump’s pact with Japan, saying it risks undercutting his stated goals of rebalancing America’s trading relationships and reviving domestic manufacturing.
Trump and his top negotiators on Wednesday hailed the deal as a potential model for other countries hoping to win tariff concessions, citing Tokyo’s pledge to create a $550 billion fund for US investments.
The president’s decision to grant Japan relief on automobiles, however, provoked criticism that the agreement wouldn’t address the main source of the US’s trade deficit with Japan even as it disadvantages Detroit’s Big Three. Around 80% of the US-Japan trade gap is in cars and car parts.
Tuesday’s announcement marked the latest signal that Trump is willing to negotiate on industry-specific duties on products including chips and pharmaceuticals, potentially undermining the most durable pillar of his tariff strategy.
The reaction underscores the risks of the president’s transactional negotiating style. Industries that have championed much of Trump’s trade strategy and stand to benefit from robust levies on foreign rivals could be left in the lurch as his plans shift.
“Any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no US content than it does North American built vehicles with high US content is a bad deal for the US industry and US auto workers,” said Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council that represents Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV.
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