Next Week's Employment Numbers Could Pressure the Fed

David Rosenberg, founder and president, of Rosenberg Research says that the labor market will tell the tale as to whether the Fed will cut rates. July nonfarm payrolls data arrives next week, in what will be a crowded week for the US. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts a hold from the Fed, at its July 29-30 meeting, with at least one dissent - Governor Chris Waller - and possibly another from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. Bloomberg Intelligence also forecasts an above-consensus call for 160k new jobs in July's payrolls print, and see GDP returning to growth as import frontloading unwinds.

Rosenberg also remarks on real estate, which he believes is a "powerful antidote to inflation." Sales of new homes in the US remained weak in June as builders’ heavier use of sales incentives failed to motivate buyers put off by high costs. Contract signings on new single-family homes increased 0.6% to an annualized rate of 627,000 last month, according to government data released Thursday. That fell short of the 650,000 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. June’s results show US homebuilders are struggling to offset an ugly mix of high prices and borrowing costs by offering incentives and subsidizing customers’ mortgage rates, which risk eroding profit margins.

David Rosenberg speaks with Tom Keene and David Gura on Bloomberg Surveillance.

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