Dollar Climbs Most Since May as Trade Jitters Ease

Wall Street kicked off a pivotal week with the dollar climbing the most since May as a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and the European Union bolstered hopes for an extension of a China trade truce. Stocks wavered near all-time highs. Bonds edged lower. The start of a week that will set the tone for the rest of the year in markets saw a dollar gauge up almost 1%, extending its July rally. The euro slid the most in over two months. The S&P 500 hovered around 6,400, with most shares falling. Treasuries barely budged after a pair of US debt sales. Oil rose as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine. In the run-up to the Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity. The big event comes Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged. Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four megacaps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results. Nancy Lazar, Chief Economist for Piper Sandler tells Bloomberg Businessweek that consumers spending is going through a soft patch going into the third quarter as businesses try to anticipate tariff cost increases.

“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”

US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security. Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.

The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit. On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months — which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.

Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington’s relations with Beijing. “We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” he said without elaborating.

“It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease,” said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. “Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.”

To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar’s strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the US, it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.

“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report. “And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.

In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics. Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.

While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, “if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

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