Trump Debates Taiwan Leader's Transit Through US

Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, discusses the significance of Taiwan's recall election failure and how it will impact the US-Taiwan relationship.

The Trump administration is debating whether to allow a planned US stopover by Taiwan’s leader next week as concerns mount that it could derail trade talks with China and a potential summit with President Xi Jinping, according to people familiar with the matter.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was planning to stop in New York on Aug. 4 and then Dallas 10 days later as part of a trip to diplomatic allies Paraguay, Guatemala and Belize, Bloomberg reported earlier this month. Planning for the trip was thrown into flux late last week when Taiwanese officials couldn’t get their US counterparts to give the green light, the people said.

The hesitation over allowing Lai’s trip has unnerved some officials in the US as well as in Taipei who fear President Donald Trump may concede too much to China as he seeks a meeting with Xi, the people said. Bloomberg reported earlier that Trump’s administration was reaching out to CEOs to accompany him on a possible trip to Beijing later this year.

The White House and US State Department didn’t reply to requests for comment made outside normal working hours.

President Lai isn’t planning any overseas travel in the near future, given the need for typhoon recovery work in southern Taiwan and tariff negotiations with the US, the presidential office said in a statement Monday.

The US has delayed such trips in the past, and could yet suggest an alternative timeframe and layover locations. Last year, Lai pushed back a planned transit through Hawaii and Guam by several months following a Biden administration request to wait until after the US election, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Lai’s planned visit comes at a delicate diplomatic moment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Monday are convening their trade teams in Stockholm to advance talks for a deal with ramifications for global markets. An extension of a trade truce reached between both sides is expected and would help pave the way for a Trump-Xi meeting.

China, which has branded Lai a “separatist” and “parasite,” views Taiwan as the most sensitive issue in relations with other countries. It has increasingly opposed US interactions with Taiwanese leaders, in particular by staging large-scale military exercises surrounding the island following former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022.

Any hesitation from Trump over transits by Taiwan’s president will fan concerns that Washington’s position on the self-ruled democracy, which Beijing considers a renegade province, could become a trade war bargaining chip. In an abrupt policy reversal, Trump already put on the negotiating table some tech curbs imposed on China over national security concerns.

While the US doesn’t have official ties with Taiwan, it’s legally obliged to provide weapons for the island’s self-defense and is Taiwan’s top supplier of military equipment.

“The fact that at least some in the administration are putting our partnership with Taiwan on the table with Beijing is deeply concerning, and sends a dangerous message to Beijing,” said Laura Rosenberger, a former US diplomat who also chaired the American Institute in Taiwan until this year. “At a time when Beijing is engaging in increasingly coercive behavior toward Taipei, the US needs to be sending a clear message of commitment to longstanding precedents, not allowing Beijing to once again move the goalposts.”

Embattled Leader

Lai, who won last year’s presidential election with the lowest winning percentage since 2000, also risks looking weak at home and abroad. Last weekend, a failed attempt to unseat lawmakers handed the opposition more ammunition for its agenda, which includes forging closer ties with Beijing.

Adding to the uncertainty, Taiwan’s trade officials are currently in Washington for talks aimed at clinching a deal to avert a threatened 32% tariff.

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