BLS Firing Undercuts US Trust in Economic Data

Thierry Wizman, Director: Global Currencies & Interest Rate Strategist at Macquarie, discusses currency moves and why the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be behind the curve on data gathering methodologies.

President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics hours after a report showed weak job growth, prompting outcries from economists to lawmakers and raising concerns over the integrity of the data going forward.

In a social media post Friday, Trump said he directed his team to fire Erika McEntarfer — who was appointed by Joe Biden — “IMMEDIATELY.” He went on to say that “important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes.”

Economists who have served under both parties were quick to jump to McEntarfer’s defense, as well as the BLS as an institution. The statistical agency is often praised both in the US and abroad for its “gold standard” statistics that are free of political influence. Many now fear that status is at stake.

Friday’s jobs report from the BLS showed payrolls increased 73,000 in July after the prior two months were revised down by nearly 260,000. In the past three months, employment growth has averaged a paltry 35,000 — the worst since the pandemic.

The BLS affirmed that McEntarfer was terminated Friday in an email to Bloomberg News. She was confirmed in January of 2024, an election year, by a vote of 86-8, with then-Senator JD Vance voting “yea.”

William Wiatrowski, deputy BLS commissioner, will serve as acting BLS chief for now, said Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Her department oversees BLS. McEntarfer didn’t immediately respond to an attempt to seek contact.

While the commissioner role is appointed by the president, BLS describes its work as “independent” and “non-partisan.” Economists and statisticians say this impartiality is key to the public and market’s trust in the data, as trillions of dollars can trade on the numbers at any given time.

Budget Constraints

Like her counterparts in other US statistical offices, McEntarfer has had to contend with tight budgets and staffing constraints — challenges that predate Trump but have grown more acute in his second term. BLS funding has slumped about 20% since 2010 once adjusted for inflation, and Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget proposal would shave an additional 8% from both its purse and personnel.

McEntarfer’s tenure was also marked by several data release incidents and mishaps in 2024, which raised questions about the dissemination of sensitive information and prompted an independent review of the agency.

The downward revision to payrolls was largely a result of seasonal adjustment for state and local government education, BLS said in earlier comments to Bloomberg. Those sectors substantially boosted June employment only to be largely revised away a month later.

Though the revisions proved larger than normal, jobs figures are routinely revised. BLS surveys firms in the payrolls survey over the course of three months, gaining a more complete picture as more businesses respond.

While Trump has decried the revisions, BLS economist Lindsay Walk told Bloomberg they “represent a more complete, and therefore more accurate, picture of developments in the labor market.”

Other economists say the revisions also point to a more concerning, underlying issue of low response rates. A smaller share of businesses have been responding to the first of those three polls. Initial collection rates have repeatedly slid below 60% in recent months — down from the roughly 70% or more that was the norm before the pandemic.

In addition to the rolling revisions to payrolls that BLS does, there’s also a larger annual revision that comes out each February to benchmark the figures to a more accurate, but less timely data source. BLS puts out a preliminary estimate of what that revision will be a few months in advance, and last year, that projection was the largest since 2009.

Trump alluded to those revisions in his initial post Friday, which al

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