US and Russia Plan Truce Deal

Courtney McBride, Bloomberg National Security Reporter, discusses the latest on a truce deal to halt the war in Ukraine.

Washington and Moscow are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter.

US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, the people said.

Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede its entire eastern Donbas area to Russia as well as Crimea, which his forces illegally annexed in 2014. That would require Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, handing Russia a victory that its army couldn’t achieve militarily since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Such an outcome would represent a major win for Putin, who has long sought direct negotiations with the US on terms for ending the war that he started, sidelining Ukraine and its European allies. Zelenskiy risks being presented with a take-it-or-leave-it deal to accept the loss of Ukrainian territory, while Europe fears it would be left to monitor a ceasefire as Putin rebuilds his forces.

US Treasury yields retreated slightly from near session highs as the report sparked a drop in oil prices, including a decline of as much as 1.7% in US benchmark WTI crude futures. Ukraine bonds jumped and Hungary’s forint hit its highest level against the euro in almost a year.

Under the terms of the deal that officials are discussing, Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine along the current battlelines, the people said. They cautioned that the terms and plans of the accord were still in flux and could still change.

It’s unclear if Moscow is prepared to give up any land that it currently occupies, which includes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe.

The White House didn’t reply to a request to comment. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request to comment. Ukraine declined to comment on the proposals.

The agreement aims essentially to freeze the war and pave the way for a ceasefire and technical talks on a definitive peace settlement, the people said. The US had earlier been pushing for Russia to agree first to an unconditional ceasefire to create space for negotiations on ending the war that’s now in its fourth year.

Putin on Friday held phone calls with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as with the leaders of South Africa, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus to share details of his Aug. 6 meeting with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff  in Moscow, according to the Kremlin.

Having returned to the White House in January on a pledge to rapidly resolve Europe’s worst conflict since World War II, Trump has expressed increasing frustration with Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire. The two leaders held six phone calls since February and Witkoff met with Putin five times in Russia to try to broker an agreement.

Alongside those discussions, Ukraine was seeking security guarantees to ensure any truce holds and urging allies to keep Russia’s economy under pressure through sanctions.

Trump hasn’t implemented any direct measures against Moscow so far, though he doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% this week for its purchases of Russian oil, sparking outrage in New Delhi. He has demanded that Putin agree to a ceasefire by Friday or the US would act to impose tariffs on countries buying Russian oil to ramp up economic pressure on Moscow.

Putin has repeatedly insisted that his war goals remain unchanged.

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