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Powell Has Reason to Hedge Jackson Hole Signal as Data Zigzags
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August 18, 2025
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6:07Now PlayingJim Bianco, founder and president of Bianco Research, breaks down what he's looking at from the Fed at Jackson Hole and the impacts of Trump's immigration crackdown and AI advances on the labor market.
Jerome Powell has the ideal platform Friday to deliver a clear signal the Federal Reserve is about to resume cutting interest rates. But the economy isn’t giving him an equally clear signal that now is the time.
The Fed chair’s annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming can be an opportunity to flag policy shifts. Powell used it for that purpose last year, and delivered a big cut soon after. He’s under intense pressure from President Donald Trump for a repeat performance.
Trouble is, the key economic indicators aren’t all pointing that way. A couple of weeks ago, when the latest jobs report revealed a slump in hiring, the case for lower rates appeared all but closed. Then came the sharpest spike in US wholesale prices in three years – fuel for the concern about tariff-led inflation that’s kept Fed officials on hold so far this year.
All of this adds to the already-intense scrutiny on Jackson Hole.
Powell last month described the labor market as solid, and policy as well-positioned. Investors will listen keenly for even a tiny shift on either front – which could open the door to a cut at the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 16-17. But with more economic numbers due before then, the Fed chief may prefer to keep his messaging carefully hedged.
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