Fed Minutes Show Majority of FOMC Saw Inflation as Greater Risk

Bloomberg's Stuart Paul reacts to minutes from the July meeting of Federal Reserve officials, as a majority of participants judged that the risk of inflation outweighs concerns of a weakening labor market.

Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central bank’s rate-setting committee.

Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but “a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 29-30 meeting said.

Policymakers left interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% last month, citing elevated uncertainty in their outlook as economic activity moderated during the first half of the year. Their statement at the time characterized the labor market as “solid” but said inflation remained “somewhat elevated.”

In his press conference following the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said the inflationary impact from tariffs could well be temporary, but the central bank needed to guard against a more persistent effect.

Committee members debated whether tariffs would generate a one-time price impact or a more lasting inflation shock.

“Several participants emphasized that inflation had exceeded 2% for an extended period and that this experience increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation,” the minutes said.

Many officials also noted that it could take some time for the full effects of tariffs to be felt in consumer goods and services prices.

The minutes arrived two days before Powell will deliver a closely-watched speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, a stage he has previously used to steer investor expectations on interest rates.

Recent economic data has supported the cautious view on inflation, but undermined confidence on employment.

The biggest spike in wholesale inflation in three years provided the latest sign that companies have begun to raise prices to offset rising input costs. Some Fed officials have voiced concerns that the levies will influence prices well into next year.

Jobs Picture

But large downward revisions to payroll gains revealed weakness in the labor market in the three months through July. Hiring hit its slowest pace since the pandemic and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

Policymakers will receive another jobs report and more inflation data before they meet again in mid-September.

The minutes also come after President Trump called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook after an administration official accused her of mortgage fraud.

Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower interest rates, echoed by his top officials and a growing list of candidates in consideration to succeed Powell when his term as chair ends in May. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued last week in favor of a half-point cut by September.

The minutes showed officials held a discussion over financial stability, with several pointing to “concerns about elevated asset valuation pressures.”

--------

Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube

Weekdays 7am-6pm ET

Follow us on X

Subscribe to our Podcasts:

Bloomberg Daybreak

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Intelligence

Balance of Power

Bloomberg Businessweek

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app:

Apple CarPlay

Android Auto

Visit our YouTube channels:

Bloomberg Podcasts

Bloomberg Television

Bloomberg Originals