Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom

Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, breaks down Nvidia earnings and offers his outlook for AI.

Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, signaling that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in artificial intelligence spending.

Sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which runs through October, the company said in a statement Wednesday. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion.

The outlook adds to concern that the pace of investment in AI systems is unsustainable. Difficulties in China also have clouded Nvidia’s business. Though the Trump administration recently eased curbs on exports of some AI chips to that country, the reprieve hasn’t yet translated into a rebound in revenue.

Analysts largely looked past the outlook, with at least 10 firms raising their 12-month price targets after the results Wednesday. They raised the estimates by an average of 3% to $202.60, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, implying a gain of about 12% from Wednesday’s close.

Nvidia shares fell 1.9% at 9:52 a.m. in New York on Thursday after briefly rising at the open. They had rallied 35% this year through the close, lifting the company’s market capitalization above $4 trillion.

During a conference call with analysts Wednesday, the company’s leadership rejected the notion that interest in deploying AI infrastructure was flagging.

“The opportunity ahead is immense,” Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said. “We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”

The company also approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks. Nvidia had $14.7 billion remaining under its previous repurchase plan at the end of the second quarter.

Analysts are staying bullish on Nvidia Corp., boosting price targets even as the world’s most valuable company offered a forecast that underwhelmed investors.

Citing the chip giant’s longer-term prospects, at least 10 firms hiked their 12-month price targets after its results Wednesday, raising the average by 3% to $202.60, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That implies a gain of about 12% from Wednesday’s close.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Harlan Sur cited a ramp up in the firm’s Blackwell AI chips. “We believe Nvidia’s 12-month forward order book continues to outstrip supply,” he noted, reinstating his Overweight rating on the stock and lifting his price target 26% to $215.

Nvidia gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, projecting sales will be roughly $54 billion in the fiscal third quarter. Though that was in line with the average Wall Street estimate, some analysts had projected more than $60 billion.

While noting sales results and guidance “were both slightly below buyside expectations,” Truist Securities analyst William Stein raised his target by 9% to $228. “We recognize this as a minor imperfection, and instead focus on management’s resilient longer-term outlook,” he said.

Shares in Nvidia briefly erased earlier premarket losses to turn positive after Jensen Huang spoke with Fox News about selling Blackwell AI chips to China and giving the US a cut of those sales.

Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with 72 buy-equivalent ratings. Only seven analysts have a hold rating and the stock has a sole sell rating, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shares in the Santa Clara, California-based company had rallied about 35% since it reported first quarter results in May — adding more than $1 trillion to its market capitalization in the period.

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