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Most Economic Forecasts in the World 'Off-Base' Due to AI
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September 11, 2025
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3:18Now PlayingJoe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, discusses the labor market and how artificial intelligence adoption and immigration policy might impact the numbers going forward.
Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level in almost four years, indicating layoff activity may be on the rise amid a sharp slowdown in hiring.
Initial claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the highest since October 2021, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 235,000 applications.
Thursday’s figures follow a monthly report on employment, published on Sept. 5, which showed the US added just 22,000 jobs in August, extending the sharp slowdown in job growth seen in recent months. Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s economic policies has made employers more hesitant to hire in 2025.
Weekly filings can be volatile around holidays, and this week’s figures included the Labor Day weekend. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, rose to 240,500, the highest since June.
The numbers were also boosted by an outsize increase in Texas, which reported a 15,304 surge in claims before adjusting for seasonal factors. Michigan saw the second-largest increase, of 2,980, while a majority of states registered declines.
Meanwhile continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were unchanged at 1.94 million in the week ended Aug. 30.
Thursday’s figures mark the final read on the state of the US labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to resume interest-rate cuts amid building concerns about employment, after keeping rates on hold so far this year to guard against inflation risk.
Separate data out Thursday showed the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in August, in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
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