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Dissents Can Reflect "Quite Different" Opinions, Says Former Atlanta Fed President Lockhart

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September 17, 2025

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Bond traders are stepping up options wagers that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one half-point interest-rate cut across this year’s three remaining policy meetings.

Officials are projected to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday for the first time in 2025, with a quarter-point reduction seen as the most likely decision. But a cooling labor market is leading some traders to hedge against the risk that a souring economic outlook leads to bigger moves in the coming months, even as inflation remains sticky.  The positions stand to benefit from as many as two half-point cuts, or three quarter-point moves across the September, October and December announcements. The trades reflect a more dovish path than currently seen in swaps, which are pricing in roughly 70 basis points of easing through the December gathering.

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