'We've Seen This Movie Before' | US Shutdown Impact

Gold reached a new all-time high as the US began a government shutdown, threatening upheaval and causing delays to key economic data releases. The suspension of federal operations risks adding further pressure on the dollar, while the release of data critical to assessing the health of the US economy, including Friday's non-farm payroll numbers, may be delayed. Danielle Poli, Global Credit Portfolio Manager at Oaktree, is attending Bloomberg's Women, Money & Power event in London. She joins Caroline Hepker to discuss the impact of the shutdown on markets and the broader outlook for credit and the wider investing environment.

Hours into the US government shutdown, the standoff is already shaping up as a political quagmire for all involved.

President Donald Trump has gleefully pinned the blame on “crazed” Democrats, in the hopes they will shoulder the political consequences. But the president could face blowback over his tumultuous leadership.

Meanwhile, Democrats are desperate to show their voters that they have the spine to take a stand against the Republican president and his policies, though they run the risk of struggling to stay united and force their message to break through in an environment dominated by Trump.

Politics are at the heart of this funding fight as both parties try to define their priorities ahead of next year’s midterm elections. The impact, however, could be felt even sooner. Trump’s administration has crafted plans for mass firings of government workers beyond traditional furloughs, advancing its goal of slashing the federal bureaucracy.

This shutdown also marks a role reversal for both parties. Republicans are pushing for an unconditional, short-term funding extension after trying to extract policy concessions on multiple past occasions by using the threat of a shutdown as leverage. Now, Democrats are the ones making policy demands.

Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are framing the fight as a clash over health-care coverage. Their challenge is to keep their party behind the strategy; Republicans would need only eight votes from Democrats to end debate and pass a funding bill. Three defected in the last vote Tuesday before the shutdown began.

Trump and Republicans have labeled their opponents irresponsible “hostage takers.” But Trump may face blame if he follows through on threats of large-scale dismissals. From the Oval Office, he doubled down on that message Tuesday, declaring: “A lot of good can come down from shutdowns, we can get rid of a lot of things that we didn’t want and they’d be Democrat things.”

Marc Short, who served in Trump’s first administration, argued that Democrats are driving the shutdown, but said Trump could lose his political advantage if he is not careful. “I think they have the upper hand, but the question is will Trump allow this to play out or will he inject himself into this,” he said.

The risks were on display after Trump’s Monday meeting with the Democratic leaders, when the president posted a crude AI-generated video depicting Jeffries wearing a sombrero and mustache while Schumer delivered a fake speech saying “if we give all these illegal aliens health care, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us.”

Jeffries later denounced the video as “racist and fake” and posted a photo of Trump alongside the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, writing “this is real.”

The first shutdown in seven years — the first since Trump’s last term — caps a turbulent stretch in Washington even by the standards of this White House. Trump has accelerated his tariff threats, pushed the Justice Department to indict a longtime political enemy and has delivered dark and grievance-laden speeches at the United Nations and before a massive gathering of military leaders.

Democratic strategist Karen Finney argued that many voters are eager to see pushback against Trump and his policies.

“Whether it’s the Epstein files, the tariffs, inflation or costs, he’s underwater on every issue,” she said.

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