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Key Eco Data in Jeopardy Amid Shutdown
Posted
October 3, 2025
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October 3, 2025
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4:00Now PlayingJennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, discusses the potential for economic pain amid a prolonged shutdown.
Investors don’t need the official government jobs report to see that the labor market has shifted into a lower gear.
Even without the marquee data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — which won’t be published on Friday due to the government shutdown — a number of private-sector indicators out in recent days pointed to sluggish hiring, limited layoffs, modest pay gains and easing demand for workers in September.
The figures largely align with the low-hire, low-fire conditions seen before the government data went dark. Assuming that holds through the end of the month, it could very well be enough to spur another interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve — as investors expect.
“We can get an impressionistic sense of what the labor market is doing without the jobs report,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “With everything we see, I think they can feel OK cutting later this month.”
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